Cocoa prices fell sharply in global markets on Tuesday following a significant increase in Nigerian exports, according to commodity analysts. Nigerian cocoa shipments rose 28% year-on-year in May to 18,034 metric tons, contributing to larger global supplies and prompting long liquidation in cocoa futures, market reports said.
On Tuesday, September ICE New York cocoa futures (CCU26) fell 2.57%, or 135 points, while July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) declined 2.18%, or 85 points, as commodity analysts linked the price drops directly to the surge in Nigerian cocoa exports and the resulting increase in global supplies. Market reports cited “long liquidation” in cocoa futures triggered by the expanding Nigerian shipments, which added to already rising ICE-monitored cocoa inventories, easing earlier fears of tight supply.
Nigerian cocoa exports in May climbed 28% year-on-year to 18,034 metric tons, according to Bloomberg-cited data, marking a significant factor in the intraday selloff.
Similar patterns were observed in earlier months: March 2025 exports rose between 19% and 24% year-on-year, with figures ranging from 22,199 to 27,564 metric tons, contributing to sharp price declines in both New York and London cocoa futures contracts. For example, on days when March export data was released, July ICE New York cocoa (CCN24) fell 4.09%, and May ICE London #7 (CAK24) dropped 2.06%, reflecting market reactions to the perceived expansion in supply.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of Nigeria reported cocoa export revenue reaching N1.2 trillion (approximately US$0.78 billion) in 2024, a substantial increase from N171 billion (about US$0.11 billion) in 2023, representing a 606% growth in the fourth quarter alone. This surge in export income underscores the scale of Nigeria’s cocoa export expansion, which analysts say is influencing global market dynamics. The NBS also noted a 279% rise in cocoa export revenue in the first quarter of 2024, reaching N408.66 billion compared to N107.59 billion in the same period of 2023.
Nigeria is recognized as one of the world’s top cocoa producers, ranking as either the fifth or sixth largest globally depending on the source. Annual production estimates place Nigeria’s cocoa output at around 270,000 metric tons, positioning it among key West African producers alongside Ivory Coast and Ghana. West Africa accounts for roughly 80% of global cocoa production, meaning shifts in Nigeria’s export volumes have outsized impacts on the global supply balance and pricing. Market commentary consistently attributes changes in cocoa futures prices to fluctuations in Nigerian shipments, with higher exports prompting selling pressure and lower exports supporting price rebounds.
The broader trend in cocoa prices reflects a retreat from record highs reached in 2024. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported that futures prices ranged between US$7,844 and US$8,415 per ton in March 2025, down from earlier peaks. Prices notably fell in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching 20-month lows by October, as improving weather conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana boosted harvest prospects. By 2026, global cocoa prices had declined approximately 46% year-to-date to around US$3,300 per ton, according to market analyses. This downward trend has been linked to easing supply concerns, increased production in West Africa, and weakening global demand for cocoa and chocolate products.
Commodity analysts explain that the increase in Nigerian exports acts as a visible, high-frequency indicator of West African supply conditions. When Nigerian shipments rise, speculative investors often engage in long liquidation of cocoa futures contracts, amplifying price declines. Conversely, when Nigerian exports slow, as was the case in July 2025 when shipments fell 22% year-on-year to 13,579 metric tons, cocoa prices showed signs of support through short-covering and price rebounds. These dynamics highlight Nigeria’s central role in global cocoa price formation.
In response to the growing importance of cocoa exports, Nigeria’s agriculture minister Abubakar Kyari announced on May 5, 2025, that President Bola Tinubu’s cabinet had approved a draft bill to establish a National Cocoa Management Board. The board is intended to regulate the cocoa industry but will not have price-setting authority. This policy initiative reflects the government’s efforts to leverage cocoa as a strategic export sector amid declining oil revenues.
Academic research analyzing Nigeria’s cocoa export trends from 1980 to 2023 identifies key macroeconomic and policy factors influencing export volumes. Exchange rates and agricultural tariffs have statistically significant negative effects on exports, while access to agricultural credit and foreign direct investment positively impact export growth. Researchers recommend policy reforms such as reducing tariffs, stabilizing exchange rates, expanding credit availability, and investing in climate-resilient farming techniques to sustain Nigeria’s export momentum despite falling global prices.
Despite the recent plunge in cocoa prices—an estimated 83% decline from 2024 peaks—Nigerian cocoa processors have struggled to fully benefit from cheaper raw beans due to structural bottlenecks in domestic processing and value addition, according to Nigerian business sources. These challenges underscore the complexities facing Nigeria as it seeks to capitalize on its expanding role in the global cocoa market.
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