Visa forecasted global economic growth of 2.4% for 2026 in its midyear Business and Economic Insights report released this week. The company attributed the modest expansion to technology-driven changes such as AI investment, digital commerce, and evolving supply chains, based on its proprietary transaction data and economic modeling, officials said.
The 2.4% figure reflects Visa’s own forecast, derived from proprietary transaction data and economic modeling rather than multilateral institutions, officials said. The company described 2026 as a year of “modest” expansion, with growth neither recessionary nor strongly booming.
Visa’s midyear Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) report projects global economic growth of 2.4% in 2026, a downward revision from the company’s earlier full-year forecast of 2.7%, according to the report released this week.
Visa attributes this modest expansion largely to technology-driven structural changes, particularly increased business investment in artificial intelligence (AI), digital commerce, and evolving supply chains. The report highlights a surge in AI-related capital expenditures as a key factor “rewiring” economic activity, reshaping productivity, trade patterns, and corporate spending decisions, officials said. According to Visa’s commentary, AI investment is expected to support the growth baseline by offsetting weaker demand in other areas, with 2026 representing an early stage in a multi-year investment cycle.
The company also points to digital commerce as a significant contributor to the outlook. Visa’s chief economist Wayne Best stated that as digital commerce reshapes shopping and payments, consumers can compare prices more easily and “stretch their budgets,” helping to keep inflation in check. The report links robust online price competition to downward pressure on goods prices, supporting real purchasing power and underpinning the 2.4% global growth forecast. Visa’s broader outlook expects global inflation to ease from about 3.4% in 2025 to roughly 3.1% in 2026, partly reflecting lower Chinese goods prices in global supply chains, officials said.
Consumer spending is projected to grow 2.4% in real terms in 2026, slightly moderating from 2025 but remaining “solid enough to anchor global growth,” according to the report. Visa officials noted that consumers have proven more resilient than expected, continuing to spend despite higher interest rates and previous inflation pressures. Real consumer spending is seen as the main driver of economic expansion next year, supported by investment and government spending. Visa’s payments transaction data provides timely insights into spending trends across regions and sectors, officials said.
Regional divergences are a notable feature of Visa’s forecast, with the headline 2.4% growth rate masking significant variation across economies. Advanced economies are expected to experience moderate growth, while parts of the emerging world, particularly regions benefiting from supply-chain realignments, are projected to expand more quickly. Visa highlights shifting trade patterns—including near-shoring, friend-shoring, and diversification away from single-country dependence—as key structural forces shaping regional performance in 2026. The company’s economists argue that trade and production are being reconfigured rather than de-globalized, influencing where growth occurs within the global total.
Visa’s midyear outlook also identifies several risks that could push growth below the 2.4% baseline, including higher-than-expected energy prices, renewed supply disruptions, or sharper slowdowns in key economies. Conversely, a faster-than-expected productivity boost from AI and digitalization or stronger consumer spending as inflation eases could lift growth above the baseline, officials said. The 2.4% projection is framed as a central case scenario, contingent on continued digital transformation, stable financial conditions, and gradual disinflation rather than dramatic policy or geopolitical shocks.
The midyear outlook’s 2.4% forecast contrasts with Visa’s earlier full-year baseline outlook, which projected 2.7% global real GDP growth in 2026, slightly below an estimated 2.9% growth in 2025. A Q&A with a Visa economist reiterated that the company was “forecasting global GDP growth of 2.7%” for 2026 at the start of the year, describing that pace as “typical” relative to recent years. The midyear update incorporates newer developments in energy prices, investment, and global demand, officials said.
Visa’s analysis underscores that while the headline growth figure is modest, the composition of growth—led by consumer spending and technology-oriented investment—is critical for businesses and policymakers. The company emphasizes that AI-enabled data processing, automation, and analytics are particularly important channels through which investment spending contributes to productivity and economic expansion next year. The report’s findings are based on Visa’s proprietary transaction data combined with economic modeling, providing a unique perspective informed by real-time payments and spending trends across global markets.
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