African markets close mixed, with South Africa, Kenya, Namibia and Ghana diverging on commodity and currency moves

African markets closed mixed on Thursday, with South Africa, Kenya, Namibia and Ghana showing divergent performances amid varying commodity and currency movements. According to Reuters and market sources, South Africa’s gains were supported by stronger gold prices, while Kenya’s shilling weakened due to increased dollar demand from the manufacturing sector and foreign exchange pressures.

South Africa’s markets gained Thursday, buoyed by stronger gold prices that supported local resource shares, according to Reuters and market sources. As a major commodity exporter, South Africa’s rand and mining equities often respond to fluctuations in gold, platinum, and overall risk sentiment. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange has periodically outperformed when global investors shift into commodity and value plays, with export earnings and domestic policy credibility influencing equity and currency performance.

The Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer reported a 34% increase in credit arrangements for businesses, signaling improved trade-finance access.

In contrast, Kenya’s shilling weakened slightly amid increased dollar demand from the manufacturing sector and foreign exchange pressures. Reuters reported the shilling traded at 129.60/90 per dollar, down marginally from 129.55/95 at the previous close. The currency’s mild depreciation reflects ongoing liquidity constraints and import demand challenges, as noted by the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer, which also highlighted Kenya’s decline in its 2024 market ranking. The barometer cited broader business concerns in Kenya, including tax pressures and foreign exchange difficulties.

Namibia’s market conditions were comparatively stable, with the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer reporting a 34% increase in credit arrangements for businesses, signaling improved trade-finance access. This contrasted with declines observed in Angola and South Africa. Namibia’s exchange-rate environment is generally less volatile than many sub-Saharan peers, although trade access, customs efficiency, and foreign currency liquidity remain key structural issues for Namibian enterprises.

Ghana’s cedi remained range-bound on Thursday, trading around 11.20 to the dollar, supported by central bank interventions and balanced currency flows, Reuters reported. However, the currency’s outlook remains vulnerable to fresh demand pressures that could induce weakening. The Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer placed Ghana lower in its 2024 ranking, reflecting ongoing economic challenges. MIT Sloan analysis noted the cedi’s sharp depreciation in 2022, underscoring Ghana’s sensitivity to exchange-rate stress.

Zambia’s kwacha showed signs of strengthening, supported by firmer copper prices, according to Reuters. Commercial banks quoted the kwacha at 23.12 per dollar on Thursday, an improvement from 23.14 a week earlier. Access Bank attributed the positive momentum to multiple factors lifting copper prices, a critical export for Zambia. The country improved its position in the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer for 2024. Zambia’s currency and equity markets are closely tied to global copper demand and pricing trends.

Across the region, African currencies exhibited divergent movements. Reuters described Kenya’s shilling as weakening, while Uganda and Zambia’s currencies were expected to strengthen. Nigeria’s naira and Ghana’s cedi were seen as relatively stable. Nigeria’s currency held steady despite a slight dip following the central bank’s decision to keep its main interest rate unchanged. This divergence reflects differences in export structures, central bank policies, and dollar-demand pressures among African countries.

Academic and institutional research provides broader context for these market behaviors. MIT Sloan’s analysis emphasized that volatile exchange rates can undermine returns and contribute to financial instability, particularly where depreciation fuels inflation and capital flight. The World Bank has highlighted that exchange-rate shocks and commodity-price fluctuations affect African economies unevenly, depending on their external balances. A 2024 study published on ScienceDirect examined predictability across 16 major African forex markets, finding significant variation in currency behavior by country.

The Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer underscored foreign currency liquidity as a major constraint for businesses across ten African markets. Reuters-linked market commentary and academic research consistently identify commodity exposure, policy credibility, and foreign exchange availability as central drivers of near-term performance in African markets. These factors continue to shape the divergent market outcomes observed on Thursday.