London and New York cocoa futures hit five-month highs on June 24, with prices rising more than 7% in a single session to £3,753 and $4,973 per metric ton, respectively. The gains came amid concerns over disrupted supply in West Africa due to El Niño conditions, which Japan’s Meteorological Agency confirmed have developed, and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projected a 67% chance of a Super El Niño this year.
The surge in cocoa futures on June 24 came amid growing concerns over supply disruptions in West Africa, the world’s largest cocoa-producing region. Meanwhile, New York’s benchmark cocoa contract (CCc2) climbed 7.1% to $4,973 per ton, after earlier touching $5,040, also a five-month peak. The rally followed a two-week advance, with both markets climbing to fresh highs on June 24, reflecting broad-based strength across the futures curve, including a 197-point gain in nearby July New York cocoa and over 6% increases in deferred contracts, market reports showed.
London cocoa futures (LCCc2) rose 7.2% in a single session to close at £3,753 per metric ton, reaching an intraday high of £3,793, the highest level in five months, according to Investing.com.
The price gains are largely attributed to fears of El Niño-driven supply risks. Japan’s Meteorological Agency recently confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed across the equatorial Pacific, a key factor in market concerns about the medium-term cocoa supply, according to cocoa market analysis. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects a 67% probability of a Super El Niño event this year, with some forecasts placing the likelihood of El Niño development above 90% for 2024 and roughly a 25% chance of a very strong event by year-end, according to NOAA’s April 2026 update cited by commodity analysts. Market commentary explicitly links the current cocoa price strength to evolving Pacific climate anomalies, which historically disrupt rainfall patterns in West Africa.
In West Africa, heavy rainfall has recently caused flooding and logistical challenges in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together produce the majority of the world’s cocoa. Accumulated rainfall in June has already approached typical full-month averages, raising concerns about excessive moisture and disease pressures on cocoa trees, sources said. Persistent heavy rains in Ivory Coast have disrupted transportation networks and limited farmers’ access to fields and ports, according to market reports. At the same time, El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions later in the season, increasing the risk of drought stress following the current wet period. Dealers and analysts note that these weather patterns could significantly reduce yields, with traders pricing in weather risk for the 2026/27 main crop.
Early field surveys indicate below-average cherelle formation—the initial stage of cocoa pods—on West African trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main harvest starting in October, according to industry sources. Analysts anticipate a significant decline in cocoa harvests for the 2026–2027 crop, with futures having risen nearly 15% in one week on these expectations. The combination of restricted field access due to flooding and heightened disease risk, including brown rot, is expected to reduce effective yields even before potential El Niño-related dryness later in the cycle, analysts said. Dealers warn of growing uncertainty surrounding the 2026/27 crop, with multiple sources cautioning that production could fall significantly below earlier projections. Historical analyses cited by cocoa specialists show that past El Niño episodes have often coincided with lower-than-trend yields in key West African countries, reinforcing concerns about potential output shortfalls.
In response to the uncertain outlook, Ivory Coast has temporarily halted the sale of forward export contracts for its 2026/27 main crop, according to two sources at the country’s cocoa regulator. Separate reports confirm that the suspension reflects official reassessment of production prospects amid heightened concern over future bean availability. Traders interpret this move as an indication that official harvest projections may be uncertain or overstated, contributing to the bullish sentiment in futures markets. Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, continues to grapple with previous seasons’ shortfalls and disease challenges, with analysts warning that any El Niño-linked dryness could further constrain its export capacity. Policy analysts note that producer-country authorities are reconsidering forward-selling strategies and pricing mechanisms to manage volatility and protect farmers and government revenues.
Cocoa prices earlier in 2024 reached an all-time record of $5,874 per ton on the New York market, roughly double their level at the start of the previous year, driven largely by poor West African harvests and El Niño-related dryness, according to market data and news reports. By early February, futures had jumped more than $1,000 per ton since the start of the year, an increase of nearly 40%, as adverse weather impacted West African yields. The current five-month highs come after some retracement from those earlier peaks, but prices remain historically elevated by long-term standards, according to TradingEconomics and commodity research. Sustained high prices have had diverse effects, including improved nominal incomes for some West African farmers but also increased input costs, income volatility, and pressure on local processing industries, analysts noted.
On the demand side, industry executives including Hershey CEO Michele Buck have stated that earnings growth is expected to stagnate partly due to historically high cocoa prices, highlighting how tight supply is impacting major confectionery companies. High cocoa prices are raising expectations of consumer price increases for chocolate and cocoa-based products as manufacturers pass through some of the cost pressures from elevated futures, reports said. While underlying demand for chocolate remains resilient, especially in mature markets, analysts observe that high raw-material costs may prompt recipe adjustments, product downsizing, or premiumization strategies to protect margins. In the short term, demand destruction is assessed as limited relative to the scale of the supply shock, with prices driven mostly by supply-side fears rather than increased consumption.
Researchers and policy analysts warn that prolonged high prices combined with climate-driven yield risks could accelerate structural changes in the cocoa value chain, including shifts in processing locations, investments in climate-resilient cocoa varieties, and renewed debates over living income for West African farmers. These developments come as the 2026/27 West African cocoa crop faces growing uncertainty amid evolving weather patterns and market responses.
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