Cocoa prices surged more than 20% over two weeks through mid-June 2024, reaching 5½-month highs, according to Nasdaq, amid heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana. The excessive rainfall flooded roads and disrupted farm access and exports, raising concerns about supply shortages in the world’s largest cocoa-producing region, officials and analysts said.
The heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana have flooded roads and cut off farmers’ access to farms and ports, disrupting transport and export flows and raising concerns about global cocoa supplies, according to Nasdaq and relief agencies. Accumulated rainfall in June through June 10 had already neared the typical full-month average in both countries, underscoring the severity of the precipitation, Nasdaq reported.
Christian Aid noted that total precipitation in West Africa during Ghana’s 2023 dry season was more than double the 30-year average, triggering supply losses and price spikes.
The rainfall has also increased the risk of crop damage. Excessive moisture fosters the spread of brown rot and black pod disease, which damage cocoa trees and reduce yields, officials said. The Globe and Mail reported that wet weather in West Africa has made farms more vulnerable to disease, with black pod disease re-emerging in fields lacking adequate chemical protection. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) linked recent price spikes to the combined effects of climate change and El Niño, which caused erratic rainfall and higher temperatures that encourage pests and diseases such as black pod and cocoa swollen shoot virus. Christian Aid attributed widespread black pod disease outbreaks in Ghana to unexpectedly heavy rainfall during the 2023 dry season, contributing to the cocoa shortage driving record prices in 2024.
Cocoa futures have surged sharply in response to these supply concerns. Nasdaq recorded a rally of more than 20% over two weeks through mid-June, reaching 5½-month highs. CNBC reported that futures jumped nearly 40% since the start of 2024, peaking at an intraday record of $5,874 per metric ton on the New York market in early February. Christian Aid documented a record price of $12,605 per ton on Dec. 18, 2024, following earlier spikes to $12,218 per ton linked to droughts, floods, and climate-related diseases. UNCTAD’s commodity monitoring showed cocoa prices surged 136% between July 2022 and February 2024, crossing $10,000 per ton for the first time on March 26 during the ongoing crisis. IFPRI reported cocoa bean prices reaching $10.97 per kilogram on April 19, 2024.
Export flows have slowed as a result of climate-driven production shocks. ReliefWeb described a slowdown in cocoa exports from Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, as a factor behind sustained high prices over 2023 and 2024. Yahoo Finance noted that slower exports from Ivory Coast, combined with weather-related stress in other producing countries, have bolstered prices. BusinessAM Live reported that heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast, combined with persistent dryness in Ghana and Nigeria, has raised the risk of crop damage ahead of the main harvest season starting in October, reinforcing supply-side price pressure. Nigeria, the fifth-largest cocoa producer, is also expected to see declines in production, further tightening global supplies.
Market reactions have reflected these supply concerns. XTB’s market analysis noted that cocoa futures on ICE surged more than 7% in a single day amid extreme weather, triggering a wave of short covering among traders. The Globe and Mail reported that September ICE New York cocoa rose 6.32% and London cocoa 4.30% in one session due to wet weather risks. BusinessAM Live cited December New York cocoa futures at $7,597 per metric ton and London futures at £5,200, with gains driven by renewed concerns over West African weather despite warnings from chocolate makers about demand erosion from record-high prices.
Officials and analysts have linked the ongoing cocoa price crisis to climate-related disruptions. UNCTAD stated that heatwaves and intense rains in West Africa, which produces about three-quarters of the world’s cocoa, have disrupted harvests and contributed to sustained price increases. Christian Aid described extreme weather—including rising temperatures and erratic rainfall—as having severely affected harvests in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, cutting global availability. IFPRI attributed soaring cocoa prices since late 2023 to intertwined effects of climate change and El Niño, especially erratic rainfall and higher temperatures that worsen disease pressure in the cocoa belt.
The 2020s cocoa crisis has been marked by consecutive growing seasons impacted by weather and disease. According to the Wikipedia entry on the crisis, unpredictable rainfall patterns are central causes of the rapid price rise. Christian Aid emphasized that more than 50% of global cocoa is grown in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, and that extreme rainfall combined with other climate impacts in these countries has driven the global shortage and price spike. BusinessAM Live cited analysts who directly linked heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast and persistent dryness in Ghana and Nigeria to increased risks for the upcoming harvest and continued upward pressure on prices.
Global cocoa harvests are expected to fall short for the third consecutive year due to extreme weather, UNCTAD reported. This ongoing supply tightening has contributed to elevated prices and prompted chocolate price increases worldwide. ReliefWeb noted that the cocoa shortage starting in 2023, driven in part by unexpectedly heavy rainfall and disease, led to prices rising 400% and remaining elevated, signaling continued weather-related supply constraints.
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