It seems that South Africa is trapped in Schrödinger’s third wave – both exist and not. Attempts to clarify the problem failed on Wednesday evening and the experts had the unenviable task of trying again on Thursday to break down the situation for us. And in fairness things seem a little more understandable now …
Wave three or not wave three? That is the question…
Technically, Mzansi as a whole is NOT yet experiencing a resurgence, but some individual locations ARE. The National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) helped explain how a national crisis can still be averted.
“Although we have not yet crossed the national threshold at the national level, current developments are worrying. Should it continue on its course, we will likely exceed this threshold in the coming weeks. If we apply meticulous social distancing and follow lockdown measures, transmission will decrease and the third wave will be delayed. “
How To Define Virus Resurgence …
According to a ministerial council technical working group, this will officially occur if the moving average incidence of SA exceeds 30% of the previous high for new infections within seven days. Here are the key facts and figures.
- At the height of the second wave, the seven-day moving average hit 18,800 cases on January 11.
- Therefore, South Africa will not enter a third wave until that weekly average reaches 5,600 per day.
- Nationally, there is still a long way to go – as of May 12, the seven-day moving average is 1,950.
Where in South Africa is there a third wave of COVID-19?
Using these criteria, we can map the regions of South Africa using their current province data. Based on the list above, only one province is currently actually experiencing a third wave, and another remains “at its peak”. Five are at serious risk of virus recurrence as only two of our nine provinces have “gone off the radar” for COVID-19 spikes …
Regions that are in the third wave:
Regions next to see the third wave:
Regions with a SUSTAINABLE RISK when entering the third wave:
- Western Cape
Regions NOT YET on course for a third wave: