Côte d’Ivoire cocoa regulator forecasts 20% export drop as farmers push for higher farmgate prices

Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire — The country’s cocoa regulator, Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC), forecast a 20% drop in cocoa exports for the 2025/26 season, officials said Tuesday. The decline is attributed to reduced availability and market tensions as farmers push for higher farmgate prices, prompting the CCC to scale back export contracts and ration volumes.

The Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC) has moved to restrict and scale back export contracts for the 2025/26 cocoa season, limiting the tonnage exporters are allowed to ship to align with the lower expected output, officials said. By mid-campaign, roughly 400,000 tons of 2025/26 export contracts had been sold, with the CCC holding back additional forward sales until the price and supply situation becomes clearer, trade sources confirmed.

Export contracts for Côte d’Ivoire cocoa have been cut to about 1.2 million metric tons, a sharp reduction from previous years, according to market reports citing CCC-aligned estimates.

The reduction in export volumes is closely linked to the regulator’s efforts to support a higher farmgate price demanded by farmers. The official farmgate price for the upcoming campaign starting Oct. 1 has been raised to 2,800 CFA francs per kilogram, up from 2,200 CFA francs per kilogram in the previous season, sector analysts and local reports said. This increase follows sustained pressure from cocoa farmers, organized through cooperatives and producer associations, who argue that rising production and living costs have outpaced earlier price adjustments. The Ivorian government’s August 2025 decision to set the farmgate price included a Living Income Differential (LID) of $400 per ton to bolster farmer incomes, according to official statements.

CCC officials and market analysts have indicated that maintaining the higher administered farmgate price requires limiting the volume of beans committed for export at lower international prices, which contributes directly to the forecasted 20% drop in exports. As global cocoa futures have retreated from record highs, Ivorian cocoa priced to cover the new farmgate level and LID has become more expensive than some competing origins, reducing buyer interest and slowing export contracting, sources said. Exporters have resisted paying the higher origin differentials while world prices fall, prompting the CCC to sell fewer forward contracts and hold out for better terms rather than lowering the farmgate price, officials added.

Reports from ports and inland storage hubs describe unsold bags of cocoa piling up as buyers hesitate to commit at the price levels needed to honor the current farmgate price, reinforcing the CCC’s projection of lower actual exports this season. Analysts noted that Côte d’Ivoire is effectively trading volume for value by accepting a significant export decline to maintain a farmer-friendly price structure.

The forecasted export drop also reflects adverse weather and disease pressures that have impacted Ivorian cocoa farms in recent seasons. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service, Côte d’Ivoire’s total cocoa production fell from over 2.3 million metric tons in earlier years to approximately 1.76 million tons in the 2023/24 marketing year due to excessive rainfall and heat spikes that damaged pods and reduced yields. CCC-linked estimates cited by Bloomberg suggest exportable volumes for the new season could be 30–40% below those of the 2023/24 season if both Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana fail to return to average production levels. The USDA projects a rebound to 1.1 million tons of exports in the 2024/25 marketing year but acknowledges that recent disruptions could alter these outlooks.

The interaction between low yields and rising production costs has intensified farmers’ demands for higher prices. Research on the Côte d’Ivoire–Ghana Living Income Differential scheme shows that many farmers still earn below a living income threshold, fueling calls to withhold or delay bean deliveries if prices do not improve, according to academic studies. This dynamic has made farmgate price policy a central driver of CCC export decisions, with the regulator prioritizing price support for farmers even at the expense of export volumes.

Côte d’Ivoire accounts for roughly 40–45% of global cocoa output, so a 20% drop in its exports is expected to tighten global supply and potentially exert upward pressure on international prices despite recent corrections from record highs, analysts said. Together with Ghana, which accounts for about 20% of world cocoa production, the two countries represent around 60% of the global supply. Failure by both to reach average production levels could result in a multi-year supply deficit, according to market observers. The export cut and higher Ivorian origin prices have prompted some buyers and chocolate manufacturers to diversify sourcing or adjust recipes, though the dominance of Côte d’Ivoire limits substitution options.

Cocoa remains one of Côte d’Ivoire’s largest export earners, and the export decline could pressure fiscal revenues even as higher unit prices and LID payments help protect farmer incomes. Historical data show that periods of elevated cocoa prices, such as the mid-2010s when prices averaged above $3,000 per ton, supported robust export earnings for the country.

The CCC’s current stance aligns with the Living Income Differential policy adopted jointly with Ghana, which adds $400 per ton on top of futures prices to raise farmer incomes above poverty levels, officials said. While the LID has provided some income gains, many farmers continue to earn below a living income threshold, reinforcing demands for higher farmgate prices and more favorable revenue sharing along the cocoa value chain, according to academic analyses. Policymakers in Côte d’Ivoire are debating how to balance farmer welfare, export competitiveness, and sustainability, including options to increase local processing to capture more value domestically and reduce reliance on raw bean exports.

Looking ahead, the experience of the current campaign, where higher farmgate prices coincide with a forecast export drop, is expected to shape future CCC pricing and sales strategies, including the timing and volume of forward sales linked to farmer price commitments. Sector reports foresee Côte d’Ivoire aiming to stabilize production around 1.8 million tons per year while improving yields, reducing deforestation, and maintaining a pricing framework that moves farmers closer to a living income, implying continued tight management of export volumes and prices.